Environmental Change, Migration and Conflict: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Explorations

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will induce considerable environmental degradation globally during this century. What are the implications of this prediction for the patterns of population migration and political conflict? Climate change is an evolving environmental phenomenon whose effects are not yet fully manifested. This paper strives to gain insight to this question by exploring the effects of environmental degradation on migration in recent decades, and the effects of this migration on conflict. It is found that environmental degradation plays a role in migration, particularly in less developed countries, and this migration, in turn, can be a factor in international and intrastate political conflict. The paper evaluates the implications of these findings for public policies aimed at preventing environmental migration due to climate change. The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change will induce considerable degrees of environmental degradation globally during this century, ceteris paribus (IPCC 2001a, 2001b). What are the implications of this prediction for population migration and political conflict? Climate change is an evolving phenomenon whose effects are not yet fully manifested. This paper strives to gain insight to this question by exploring the effects of environmental degradation on migration in recent decades, and the effect of this migration on conflict. The theory developed here argues that people can adapt to adverse environmental changes either by defending against them, or by leaving affected areas. The choice between these options depends on the extent of change and the technical capabilities of the society. Developed countries (DCs) are likely to defend against the changes. Less Developed Countries (LDCs) are less able to do so since this effort requires high levels of investment and technological expertise, which they lack. People living in LDCs may have no choice but to migrate from the affected areas. Environmental migration, in turn, increases the likelihood of conflict at its destination due to forces discussed in the next section. In empirically exploring the implication of this theory, the paper first conducts two case studies, focusing on internal migration in the U.S. during the 1930s, and internal and cross border migration